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AsiaBusiness & Finance

Is $5 Trillion economy achievable now?

By Rehan Rajput

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We find roots of our strong economy back in 1991, when Indian forex reserves had collapsed to $1.1 Billion only. And, we could only import with this amount for just 2 weeks. Today, India’s forex reserves stands at $453 Billion which is enough to import for 12 months. In 1991, India’s total budget was 1.13 lakh crore only. Which has arrived to 34 lakh crore, a 31x growth. Also, India’s GDP stood on $266 billion in 1991, which has crossed over $2.7 trillion now.

However, why Indian economy is talk of the town these days? There have been a reports of constant slowdown in India’s GDP growth rate. Today, Each Indian shares a dream of PM Modi’s $5 trillion economy goal. Thus, it is mandatory to maintain a consistent growth rate over 9% in order to achieve $5 trillion economy goal. Is this really a possible dream as we have seen how economic slowdown unfolds over a past few years and there’s no allusion of its recovery so far. If India is able to maintain a steady pace with 9% growth rate, this would be the anecdotal situation – approx. $3.3 trillion GDP in Financial year (FY) 2021, $3.6 trillion GDP in FY 2022, $4.1 trillion GDP in FY 2023, $4.4 trillion in FY 2024 & lastly $5 trillion goal in FY 2025.

The ongoing economic slowdown raises serious concerns over achieving a $5 trillion economy goal as there are no indication of recovery yet. Hereby, this creates an unambiguousness over the revival of economy. Let’s get into the vivid statistics of economy to analyze the condition thoroughly. At present, India’s Gross domestic product (GDP’s) growth rate has fallen on a 6-year low, which is 4.5% (Second quarter of FY 2019-2020). As per the latest records, the Reserve bank of India (RBI) cuts growth rate to 5% for the FY 2019-2020 from 6.1% projected in its October policy. Even, this 5% growth rate is projected with a further risk of slowdown. India’s derailing economy consistently witness this slowdown since last many years – GDP growth rate for the financial year (FY) 2016-17 was 8.2%, for FY 2017-18 closed on 7.2%, FY 2018-19 got over at 6.8%, consecutively slowing further to 5% for Q1 & most recent 4.5% in Q2.

Certainly, this falling graph must incite Government & all citizens to ponder over this grave situation, which needs prompt corrective measures. The International monetary fund (IMF) & World Bank – Global economic platforms have also expressed grave concerns over India’s economic slowdown. The World Bank cut India’s growth for the FY 2020 to 5%. Simultaneously, this slowdown has hit India’s big industries badly. Automobile, MSME’s & Rear Estate are the most affected industries due to this phenomenon. Only Automobile industry has lost over 3 lac jobs so far & as per the industry experts, risk is not over yet. Real Estate industry is facing dark time as Macrotech developers (A Real Estate company) has handed over pink slips to its 400 employees.

Government is completely on a back foot over this crisis as opposition is admonishing & attacking Government repeatedly on the front foot. In this situation, Onus stays on The Finance Minister of India – Hon. Nirmala Sitharaman & Minister of State (MoS) Anurag Thakur. PM Modi’s government is committed & accountable to fix the economy but their priority seems quite different than the real issues such as – Economic slowdown, Massive Job loss, Inflation because Government’s senior leaders & ministers are making hateful speeches these days. Recently, Minister of State (MoS) for finance Shri Anurag Thakur seen leading a rally chanting “Desh ke gaddaro ko goli maro * ko” (Shoot the traitors) indicating towards a particular community. Hence, the aim of achieving $5 trillion economy is under the dark shadow yet.

Indian neighboring countries such as – China, Bangladesh is growing with a GDP growth rate of 7.2%, which makes India more evident, this is not a Global slowdown. India needs to wary of the fact that a weak economy leads to unstable fiscal deficit. Which erupts with a tons of problem. For instance – Weak economy leads to less Budget & less Budget leads to a weak defense with scarcities of fund for all Social welfare schemes. This affects in a 360 degree ground whether it is about Government’s spending for Big infrastructure projects or imports. Government has to take a final step now which proves as a remedy for the aggrieved citizens due to Job losses & its related complications. Either the Government should call a few Global economic experts those could mooted over the situation or should replace finance minister with a more capable one.

Let’s hope for the day things get controlled & we all Indians whoopee…Otherwise, it is going to be a biggest setback for the Modi Government.

lost over 3 lac jobs so far and as per the industry experts, risk is not over yet. Real Estate industry is facing dark time as Macrotech developers (A Real Estate company) has handed over pink slips to its 400 employees. Government is completely on a back foot over this crisis as opposition is admonishing & attacking Government repeatedly on the front foot. In this situation, Onus stays on The Finance Minister of India – Hon. Nirmala Sitharaman & Minister of State (MoS) Anurag Thakur. PM Modi’s government is committed & accountable to fix the economy but their priority seems quite different than the real issues such as – Economic slowdown, Massive Job loss, Inflation because Government’s senior leaders & ministers are making hateful speeches these days. Recently, Minister of State (MoS) for finance Shri Anurag Thakur seen leading a rally chanting “Desh ke gaddaro ko goli maro ***** ko” (Shoot the traitors) indicating towards a particular community. Hence, the aim of achieving $5 trillion economy is under the dark shadow yet. Indian neighboring countries such as – China, Bangladesh is growing with a GDP growth rate of 7.2%, which makes India more evident, this is not a Global slowdown. India needs to wary of the fact that a weak economy leads to unstable fiscal deficit. Which erupts with a tons of problem. For instance – Weak economy leads to less Budget & less Budget leads to a weak defense with scarcities of fund for all Social welfare schemes. This affects in a 360 degree ground whether it is about Government’s spending for Big infrastructure projects or imports. Government has to take a final step now which proves as a remedy for the aggrieved citizens due to Job losses & its related complications. Either the Government should call a few Global economic experts those could mooted over the situation or should replace finance minister with a more capable one. Let’s hope for the day things get controlled & we all Indians whoopee…Otherwise, it is going to be a biggest setback for the Modi Government.


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